The Amazing-ly Bad Mets and Early Rumblings

September is a grueling month in the world of Major League Baseball. The final month of the regular season, it decides who plays on into October and who goes home early for the offseason. Yesterday saw most teams play their final game of the season and, apart from the American League Central, which will not be decided until Tuesday in a one game play-off between the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox, the remaining seven playoff teams have been determined. Sadly, the New York Mets have now turned in historically bad performances two seasons in a row to force themselves out of the playoffs when leading the division with seventeen games to go. For the next five months, my interest will be in how the Mets and the rest of the MLB plan to solve any problems the teams have via the free-agent market, via trade, or even through changes in the front office. For some early rumors (the big moves and real discussions do not usually begin until the winter meetings in December) I decided to surf the blogosphere. To my delight, I found two very interesting posts in the very same blog, ESPN.com's Buster Olney Blog. This was a great find because Buster Olney is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine and has been covering baseball since 1989. Before ESPN The Magazine, Olney worked at The New York Times for six years covering baseball, the Mets and Yankees in particular. I was initially drawn to this blog because his most recent post, Mets' big hope for 2009... fix Wright was concerning the Mets 2008 collapse and speculated on things they could look to change in 2009. The second post that attracted my attention was Ten thoughts about the free-agent market, a post in which Olney presents ten interesting thoughts about what to look for this offseason. In addition to publishing my comments directly on Olney's blog, I have also posted these comments below.

(Please Note: Only subscribers to ESPN.com's Insider will be able to view the blogs and comments in full. I apologize for any inconvienence caused)

Mets' big hope for 2009... fix Wright

Comments:

Thank you for a great post that highlights something I also saw as a major problem for the Mets this season. While most of the discussion of the Mets' failure this season will focus on the torrid time had by the bullpen after Billy Wagner went down with an injury, I think the offense kept too many games close enough for the bullpen to be put under pressure and blow the game. When you look at their lineup, the Mets look like a time that should rarely struggle to score runs. Yet, throughout the course of the season the fact that the Mets never overcame a four-run deficit shows that the offense might be prone to just give up or disappear some games. I agree that David Wright's struggles with runners in scoring position were a huge part of this. In the last week of the season alone, it seemed like every time Wright had the chance to make an impact he was a non-factor at the plate. This was hugely disappointing after he put up numbers through the season that could have gained him a few votes in the MVP race.

I like your idea about the sports psychologist. Look at Wright when he is happy and relaxed: he's all smiles, flashy handshakes with Jose Reyes (pictured to the left), huge numbers and Met wins. What concerns me most is that next year, with two consecutive September collapses on their minds, will Wright and the Mets offense disappear entirely? Also, do you see the Mets entering the Sabathia race? Do you think they will make a strong attempt to sign K-Rod? Do you think Minaya deserves his extension?

Ten thoughts about the free-agent market

Comments:

Thank you Buster this is a very interesting post for those of us without teams playing ball in October. As a Mets fan, the only things I have to look forward to is a new stadium and potential free-agent signings. As I maintain a blog about contracts, trades and statistics, your post served me very well. I think your first thought is very interesting because it shows how baseball's economy works in relation to the nation's. In recent years

contracts have skyrocketed in value and an economic recession could play a large part in reducing the number of overpaid players. With Sabathia (pictured to the right), do you see him making whatever team he decides to play for favorites to reach the World Series? With seemingly only contenders vying for his services and seeing what he has done for Milwaukee in the past nine days let alone the past few months, he seems like he could be a real difference maker in '09. Since "the market for starting pitching, in general, is going to be better than expected" do you see a decline in $10 million contracts being given to mediocre starters? Something else I was hoping to find in your post was a discussion of young players that may be ready to make some sort of an impact, the Soto's and the Longoria's of next year and also, who you feel the biggest impact bat will be this offseason. As a resident of Los Angeles, I am curious as to what the future of Manny Ramirez will be.

Dodger Success: Still Just Manny Being Manny?

Now is a wonderful time for a baseball fan to be living in Los Angeles. Not only have the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim clinched a playoff spot by winning their division, they also have the best record in the the entire Major Leagues at (96-59). At the same time, the Los Angeles Dodgers have made a recent surge and find themselves two and a half games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in first place in the National League West. While the Angels have consistently been one of the best teams in the Majors, the Dodgers have had trouble finding consistency and have not won a World Series title since 1988. The Dodgers are a large market team that has, in the recent years, failed to progress past even the first round of the playoffs. To say they are not talented would be wrong, as they built their team around a young nucleus of skilled players in Russel Martin, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsly, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Broxton. They even had veteran contributions from Derek Lowe, Nomar Garciapara, Jeff Kent and Greg Maddux, though none of this was enough. It was only after they acquired Manny Ramirez from the Boston Red Sox that they were able to perform consistently at a high level.

For 15 years, Manny has thrilled management and fans alike as he established himself as one of the best hitters of all time. A perfect blend of power and precision, Manny is a career .314 hitter with 526 homeruns and 1721 RBIs. In 2000, his numbers were already good enough to fetch him a $168 million 8-year contract on the free-agent market from the Boston Red Sox, thanks also to super-agent Scott Boras. Although he continued to perform exceptionally for the first 7 years of his contract, Manny started making headlines for all the wrong reasons. The conflict began with little things like failing to run out a grounder and progressed to inexplicable plays like forgetting how many outs there are or making an acrobatic play to catch a ball that was not intended for him and should not have been caught by him. Then came the offseason trade demands. It seemed like after every season Manny was demanding a trade. There was always interest, but his contract and the package of players it would take to pull off a trade were always too high. It was more than this, however, as Manny's performances on the field always caused the Red Sox to hesitate when seeking to meet his trade demands. As frustrating as Manny was and as distracting as he became within the organization, his offensive numbers were always too good for the Red Sox to let go of, at least until this past summer. Let us not forget that Manny led the Red Sox to world series titles in 2004 and 2007.

This year, however, after a tormenting first half of the season in which Manny seemed to choose when he played, removing himself from the game if he felt the pitcher threw too hard or he just did not like the matchup, the Red Sox finally tired of his antics and his incessant trade demands and shipped him off to the Dodgers in a three-team trade that also included the Pittsburgh Pirates. Perhaps the most surprising feature of this trade was that the Dodgers were only forced to give up two minor league pitchers and pay only a $1 million option on Ramirez's contract that was enacted once he was traded. This seemed like a steal on paper even if they only retained Ramirez's services for the remainder of the season. Amidst all the negative media, Ramirez had been able to put together a good half season, batting .299 with 20 home runs and 68 RBIs and his production was expected to continue in Los Angeles. Though it seemed like the Dodgers were practically stealing a premier power hitter from the Red Sox, Donald Todrin puts it a bit differently in his "Lets-Talk-Business" blog, saying the Red Sox "understand that to be a world class champion, "team" is more important than individual performance".

These same questions regarding Ramirez's commitment to the team and to winning lingered, however, as the public disintegration of his relationship with the Red Sox was watched closely by GMs across the nation. Most people felt that Manny tended to be concerned only with himself and his next massive contract. Those questions were dispelled almost immediately as he began almost single handedly carrying the Dodgers to the top of their division. In his first 44 games with the Dodgers, Ramirez is hitting .400 (a magic number in baseball that may never be attained as a full-season batting average again) with 44 RBIs. His performances have been so good that he has been mentioned in discussions for the National League Most Valuable Player award. Manny, however, feels he doesn't deserve to be NL MVP, saying "I'd like to win it. But i have to be realistic. Someone who was only here for two months doesn't deserve it. It should go to someone who played the six months of the season". These are surprising words coming from a supposedly egocentric and undeniably selfish character. While it remains unlikely that he will win the award, the fact that he even receives consideration for 2 months work out of a 6 month season says a lot about his ability to perform on the field, and helps explain why he is always given a chance to play, no matter what conflict he has just stirred up.

What is even more amazing is that his behavior has perhaps been even better than his on-field performances. Teammates like Dodgers catcher Russel Martin say that Manny "has brought a new life to the team" and that "they feel like they are better" as a team. Before getting Manny, the Dodgers were just at .500 at (54-54) but since then have gone (25-19). This improvement along with a slumping Arizona team has seen them land comfortably in the lead of their division. Jerry Crasnick writes that "by assuming the role of leading man in the clubhouse, he has made the most startling Hollywood transformation since

Bill Murray went from 'Caddyshack' to 'Lost in Translation'". Who would ever have thought after his actions in Boston that Manny would become a leading figure of a harmonious clubhouse? This good behavior has not cleared him all charges against him, however, as a few questions still remain concerning Ramirez's future beyond this season.

The Dodgers love what they have gotten from Ramirez thus far, but have concerns about the type of contract he will be asking for in the offseason, especially after his monster second half of the season. Concerns are that Manny will lose his focus on baseball once he receives a contract that pleases him (probably 3 to 4 years at over $20 million a year) and may return to being the disruptive clubhouse force we saw earlier this year. A common notion in the world of baseball is that players typically perform better in walk years (the year right before their current contract runs out and they will become free agents) in hopes of securing a large new contract. After securing these contracts, however, some players fail to be as motivated and their on-field performances suffer as a consequence. At 36 years of age, Manny is likely past his prime and although he can still be productive, it is likely that his production levels will drop in the next few years. Combine that with the defensive liability that he is, BleacherReport.com says that he "is not in the best physical shape of his career" and that his performance in left-field is "sluggish" and "irritating". It seems like Manny will have to return to the American League where he can be a DH, stay out of the field and extend his career as long as possible.

It remains to be seen what kind of contract offers Manny will be receiving, but what is clear is that with all the money in baseball, someone will most likely be willing to part with $25 million per year over at least 2 years just for the chance that he decides to stay focused and continues to produce on the field. What does this say about the condition of the game of baseball? A star player can bully a team into trading him and then gets a huge reward for performing only once he gets exactly what he wants and has the most incentive. Another concern is that Manny will set a precedent for players that are not happy on their team and we will see a number of star players force their way into trades. If there is no risk of a pay cut at the end of that ordeal, what is stopping the players from demanding what they want and refusing to play if they do not get it? Let us just hope that teams do not forget Manny's troubled past when making their contract offers this fall.